Match: Coppa Italia
Teams: AC Milan VS Lecce
Local Kick-off Time: September 23, 21:00
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Handicap Prediction:
AC Milan -1.75 (Asian Handicap)
Home Win (European Odds)
Predicted Scores: 3-0, 3-1, 4-1
Predicted Total Goals: 3, 4, 5
Comprehensive Prediction Analysis:
AC Milan have shown a significant recovery in form recently. In their 3-0 away victory over Udinese on September 21, the team demonstrated a balanced performance on both offense and defense, with the defense led by Tomori keeping a clean sheet. More impressively, the team's resilience when trailing has significantly improved—goals scored in the second half accounted for 75% of their total goals in the last three matches, demonstrating strong physical fitness reserves and tactical execution. Notably, in the absence of Leão, the team's offensive style has quietly shifted from being wing-break dominated to midfield penetration; the proportion of central attacks has increased from 38% to 52% in the last two matches, which is closely related to the integration of new signing Rici.
Lecce have recently fallen into trouble. Their 1-2 home defeat to Cagliari on September 20 exposed multiple issues: their previously solid five-defender system made 3 fatal mistakes, and the midfield interception success rate plummeted from 62% at the start of the season to 45%. More worrying is that the efficiency of the team's survival depends on it counter-attack tactics has dropped sharply—although they have launched 18 counter-attacks in the last three matches, they only completed 3 shots on target, with the conversion rate falling to 16.7%, nearly half of what it was at the start of the season. This team, which relies on counter-attacks as its lifeline, has struggled particularly in away matches. They have conceded an average of 1.8 goals per away match in Serie A this season, with numerous defensive loopholes. More critically, their ability to deal with possession-based teams is weak—when opponents have a possession rate of over 55%, Lecce concede an average of 2.3 goals per match, while AC Milan's home possession rate this season is exactly 58%.
Summary:
Lecce are facing their most serious injury crisis of the season. Key midfielder Rafia is sidelined with the flu, leading to a 50% drop in the team's midfield interception ability. Meanwhile, AC Milan are gradually completing their revival recently, winning 3 out of 4 Serie A matches this season. In recent years, AC Milan have only won the Supercoppa Italiana last season and have not claimed any other prestigious trophies; therefore, they will not easily give up on the Coppa Italia this season. Facing a weaker opponent like Lecce in this match, AC Milan are expected to secure a big home win.
