Match: FIFA Club World Cup
Teams: Real Madrid vs. Borussia Dortmund
Local Kick-off Time: 16:00 (ET), July 5, 2025
Venue: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA
Referee: Ramon Abatti (Brazil)
Assistant Referees: Stuart Burt (England) and Stuart Burt (England)
Team Strength Overview
Real Madrid: Madrid has advanced steadily in the Club World Cup, edging Juventus 1-0 to reach the quarterfinals. However, their defensive injury crisis is critical: Dani Carvajal (hamstring strain) and Eder Militão (just three days into training recovery) leave a new defensive pairing still gelling. Kylian Mbappé’s fitness remains a question mark upon return, but the midfield trio of Fede Valverde, Jude Bellingham, and Arda Güler has been rock-solid.
Borussia Dortmund: Dortmund stunned Monterrey with a 2-1 comeback, fueled by Serhou Guirassy’s two-goal heroics and Karim Adeyemi’s blistering pace on the wing. Yet the loss of Nico Schlotterbeck (season-ending injury) has exposed defensive flaws—conceding 13 goals in 8 matches—while Joe Bellingham’s suspension (cumulative yellow cards) rules out a sibling showdown with Jude Bellingham.
Handicap Prediction
Asian Handicap: Real Madrid -1
- European Odds: Home Win
- Expected Scores: 1-0, 2-0, 2-1
- Betting Data Trends: Asian bookmakers opened with Madrid -0.75, later surging to -1, signaling strong confidence. European odds stand at 1.63-4.15-4.40, favoring Madrid. Given the rosters, Dortmund may struggle to resist Madrid’s dominance.
Expected Goals
Goals Range: 1, 2, 3
- Betting Data Trends: The Asian over/under opened at 3.0 goals, rational for two attacking sides. With odds stable, punters remain cautious: Dortmund’s suspensions/injuries hinder offense, while Mbappé’s fitness and Madrid’s defensive woes cap goal expectations.
Expected Corner Kicks
Corner Kicks: Over 10.5
- Analysis: Both teams deploy three-center-back systems, but Madrid’s midfield superiority and creative spark give an edge. With pacey wingers on both flanks, the wide areas will see heavy action, leading to frequent corner kicks.
