Match: EFL Cup
Fixture: Burnley vs Derby County
Local Kick-off Time: August 26th at 19:45
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Handicap Prediction:
Asian Handicap: Burnley -1.25
European Handicap: Home Win
Predicted Scores: 3-0, 3-1, 4-1
Predicted Total Goals: 3, 4, 5
Comprehensive Analysis:
Burnley is a promoted side in the Premier League this season. They lost to Tottenham Hotspur in their first match after promotion—understandably, as they were outclassed. However, they won comfortably 2-0 against fellow promoted side Sunderland in their last match, maintaining the defensive solidity that defined their last season. After promotion, Burnley has significantly strengthened their squad by signing several players, including England international Kyle Walker, which has improved their overall strength. In terms of the lineup for this match, manager Parker will definitely make a certain degree of rotation, but they have abundant options on the bench. For example, goalkeeper Maxwell, as well as Ramsey, Edwards, and Zian Flemming in other positions, are all expected to start. Thus, even with a rotated squad, Burnley still holds a significant advantage on paper.
Derby County, a Championship side, finally avoided relegation after appointing Eustace as manager in February this year. However, it will be difficult for them to achieve better results this season: they have 2 losses and 1 draw in the league without a win, and even lost 3-5 to Coventry—confirming their status as a lower-middle-table side. In the previous round of the EFL Cup, they drew with West Bromwich Albion away from home. In stoppage time, substitute Ward scored a free kick, and Derby County narrowly eliminated their opponent via penalties with a stroke of luck. From the lineup used in that match, it was mostly a mix of first-team and substitute players, indicating that the team does not attach great importance to the EFL Cup. According to current information, manager Eustace will also field a rotated squad for this match, and the team is dealing with several injuries—including center-back Nelson, who will be unavailable.
Summary:
From the handicap perspective, the initial line generally opened with Burnley giving -1 goal at medium odds. Burnley’s main focus this season will undoubtedly be on avoiding relegation in the Premier League, but Derby County also does not attach much importance to the EFL Cup and will mostly field a mix of first-team and substitute players. In terms of fundamentals, Burnley still has a slight advantage. Currently, most Asian bookmakers have adjusted the handicap to -1.25 goals, and this continuous show of support reflects that Burnley’s appeal is growing. Combining the strength of the data handicap, Burnley is expected to win and progress.
