La Liga : Real Madrid vs Osasuna Prediction & Betting Tips

Match: La Liga
Fixture: Real Madrid vs Osasuna
Local Kick-off Time: 21:00 on August 19th

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Handicap Prediction: 

Real Madrid -1.75 (Asian Handicap)
Home Win (European Odds)
Predicted Scores: 3-0, 3-1, 4-1
Expected Goals: 3, 4, 5

Prediction & Comprehensive Analysis: 

Real Madrid finished as runners-up in the league last season, marking the end of Ancelotti’s era at the club. For the new season, they have appointed club legend Xabi Alonso—who achieved success in the Bundesliga—as their manager, with the management determined to make a strong comeback. Alonso quickly settled into his role; long before the Club World Cup, he moved swiftly to address the team’s squad weaknesses with impressive efficiency. In addition to the pre-confirmed signing of Arnold, promising new arrivals such as Wisen, A. Fernández, and Marstonnino were secured early. Coupled with the return of several injured players, the team began integrating their new tactical setup during the Club World Cup. Although they were eventually eliminated by Paris after a heavy defeat, the team’s pre-season preparation goals for the new campaign were largely achieved. Now, the team has sufficient personnel across all three lines (attack, midfield, defense). In their only recent pre-season friendly, all players featured, and the team fielded two lineups to secure a big win, instilling confidence in their start to the new season. However, some key players remain sidelined by injuries at this stage, such as Bellingham and Camavinga, while Rüdiger will also serve a suspension in tonight’s match.

Osasuna finished 9th in the league last season, largely meeting their seasonal targets based on the strength of their squad. The club kept a low profile in summer transfers, making signings primarily to replace departing key players. It is believed their style of play will remain largely unchanged—they will continue to rely on physical toughness and maintain a balanced squad. Their goal for the new season is likely the same as last season: to secure a mid-table finish. The team retained their top scorer from last season, Croatian international Budimir, who has shown good form in pre-season friendlies and found the net in recent matches. Additionally, following the departure of key right-back Arraso, the team will experiment with a 3-man defense formation this season. However, based on pre-season performances, players seem to need more time to adapt to the new system. It is believed that for tonight’s away game, reverting to their familiar 4-3-3 formation would be a safer choice.

Summary: 

This match marks the home team’s first game of the new season and manager Alonso’s debut in La Liga, with the entire squad determined to secure a win. Despite the absence of some key players due to injuries and doubts surrounding midfield organization in the post-Modrić era, Alonso’s tactical style has always been wing-focused, which will downplay the role of central midfield organization. Furthermore, many young players such as Güler and Marstonnino are eager to prove themselves, making their performances in the new season worth anticipating. In contrast, while Osasuna’s squad has seen few changes, their formation structure has shifted. Facing an opponent they suffered heavy away defeats against in the past two seasons, Osasuna’s indecision over their formation tonight increases the risk of another away loss. Asian bookmakers have offered a deep handicap of -1.75 goals for the home team, consistent with historical trends, clearly showing strong support for this new Real Madrid side. Therefore, it is advisable to back Real Madrid to secure their first big win of the new season.