Match: UEFA Europa League
Fixture: Nottingham Forest VS Porto
Local Kick-off Time: 19:00, October 23rd
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Handicap Prediction:
Porto +0 (Asian Handicap, Level Handicap)
Draw + Away Win (European Handicap)
Predicted Scores: 0-0, 0-1, 1-1
Predicted Total Goals: 0, 1, 2
Comprehensive Analysis:
Nottingham Forest’s home ground has now become a synonym for embarrassment: They have lost all 4 recent official home games, failing to score a single goal and being conceded 3 goals three times. The fans’ cheers in the stands have long turned from encouragement to sarcasm. New coach Sean Dyche can be called an "emergency firefighter"—after the club owner’s farce of changing coaches for the second time in 39 days, this youth academy-born coach took office in a hurry with club legends. The time left for them to adapt to the tactics is only 48 hours—this time is barely enough for the players to remember the new formation, let alone expect complex tactics. The team’s squad is simply a "injury report": Main right-back Ola Aina has a hamstring injury and will be out until the end of the year, midfield playmaker Dominguez is sidelined, and even the goalkeepers are not fully fit. The defensive line is full of loopholes—they have not kept a clean sheet since April, and substitute defender Serge Aurier has a terrible error rate of 33%. Facing Porto’s attacking lineup, it will be difficult for him to adapt. However, Forest is not completely without the ability to fight back—28% of their goals come from set pieces, and their corner kick tactic efficiency ranks among the top five in the league. The 1.94-meter Milenkovic and Wood, who is good at aerial duels, will play an important role in this game.
Porto’s form is so good that it is impressive. Currently, the team leads the Primeira Liga, has won both Europa League games, and has won all 6 away games this season, with a goal difference of 16-1, which is simply a dimensionality reduction blow. The 4-3-3 system built by Stefano Pioli is like a precision instrument—with an average possession rate of 58%, they can pass the ball into the opponent’s penalty area, and an 84% pass accuracy is even more stable than the backcourt passing of many teams. Frontline striker Omorodion has already scored 8 goals this season, and his hat-trick in 10 minutes in the Taça de Portugal proves that his form is red-hot. Although he has not scored in European competitions yet, facing Nottingham’s leaky defense, he is likely to score. The midfield is even more full of talents: Otávio’s 5 assists can deliver deadly through balls, Danilo’s average of 4.1 dribbles per game can break through the defense, and Rosario’s steals are the starting point of counterattacks. However, this "dominant team" has an "old scar": Their away win rate against English teams in European competitions is only 37%, and they have won only 1 out of 24 away games. Whether their current form can break the historical record remains unknown.
Summary:
On one side is the new coach Sean Dyche, who just took office two days ago and is trying to apply a "band-aid" to the team that has been winless in 10 consecutive games; on the other side is Porto, which has come with a 14-game unbeaten streak, and their away win rate is even more eye-catching than Nottingham’s home goal rate. This Europa League group match is more like a dramatic collision between "bottom redemption" and "king’s inspection tour". In terms of the Asian Handicap, the initial handicap gave Nottingham Forest -0.25, but has now dropped to Level Handicap. Based on the current situation of both teams, this game is indeed full of suspense. However, referring to Porto’s brilliant recent performance, it is advisable to support them to get away with at least a draw in this away game.
