Match: UEFA Champions League
Fixture: Qarabağ vs Chelsea
Local Kick-off Time: 21:45 on November 5
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Handicap Prediction:
Asian Handicap: Qarabağ +1.5
European Odds: Draw + Away Win
Expected Scores: 0-1, 1-1, 1-2
Expected Total Goals: 1, 2, 3
Comprehensive Prediction Analysis:
Qarabağ has performed well in attack, scoring 19 goals in their last 10 official matches with an average of 1.9 goals per game, demonstrating a certain ability to maintain offensive output. Especially in the Champions League, the team has scored in all 3 group-stage matches, netting a total of 6 goals with an impressive average of 2 goals per game, showing considerable offensive efficiency. Although their defense struggles against top European teams, their frontline still possesses notable threat and stability in European competitions. In their last Azerbaijan Premier League match, they defeated Mil-Muğan 2-0 at home, and have remained unbeaten in their last 2 official matches (1 win, 1 draw). Looking at their last 10 matches across all competitions, the team only lost away to the strong Athletic Bilbao, while maintaining stable performances in other games—their overall form is commendable. Particularly in European competitions, Qarabağ has shown certain competitiveness at home this season, winning 3 and losing 1 in 4 home matches. Among these, they claimed a valuable 2-0 victory over Danish powerhouse Copenhagen in their first Champions League group-stage home game.
Chelsea still has multiple players sidelined due to injuries. Key midfielder Cole Palmer suffered a groin injury and will be out until early December. Rotation defender Benoît Badiashile has a muscle injury and will also be sidelined until early December. Backup midfielder Carney Chukwuemeka has a thigh injury and will miss action until late December. First-choice defender Levi Colwill tore his cruciate ligament and has been ruled out for the season. Recently, the team has performed excellently at both ends of the pitch. Their attack has maintained stable firepower, scoring in 14 consecutive official matches. They have scored 17 goals in their last 7 games with an average of 2.43 goals per game, showing a significant improvement in offensive efficiency. Their defense has also been solid, conceding only 7 goals in the last 7 matches (1 goal per game) and keeping 2 clean sheets—including a shutout against Portuguese powerhouse Benfica in the Champions League, demonstrating the defense’s focus and resilience in key games. Overall, the team’s attack and defense are well-balanced, and they are in good form.
Summary:
In terms of the Asian Handicap, the initial line was set at Chelsea -1.5 goals, and has remained stable since then, with medium to high odds on both sides. Azerbaijan has entered winter at this time of year, so the pitch temperature is very low. Coupled with the extremely cold artificial turf, the difficulty of the match for Chelsea will increase significantly.
Chelsea is undoubtedly the favored side in this game, but Qarabağ’s past performances—such as defeating Benfica and Copenhagen—cannot be ignored. Considering the pitch conditions of this match, it is advisable to be optimistic about Qarabağ defending the handicap at home, losing by no more than 2 goals to Chelsea, or even earning points against Chelsea.
