Match: UEFA Champions League
Fixture: Benfica vs Bayer Leverkusen
Local Kick-off Time: 20:00 on November 5
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Handicap Prediction:
Asian Handicap: Bayer Leverkusen +0.5
European Odds: Draw + Away Win
Expected Scores: 0-0, 0-1, 1-1
Expected Total Goals: 0, 1, 2
Comprehensive Prediction Analysis:
Benfica has been somewhat unstable this season. After surprisingly losing to Qarabağ at home in the Champions League group stage, the club unexpectedly sacked Bruno Lage and rehired José Mourinho, who had a short coaching stint with the team in the early years. In the two Champions League matches Mourinho has led Benfica to so far—both away games against Premier League teams—Benfica was shut out and lost both, currently sitting at the bottom of the group (second from last) with 0 points from 3 games, making their qualification prospects bleak. However, looking at Mourinho’s overall record since taking charge, apart from these two Champions League defeats, Benfica has achieved 6 wins and 2 draws in other competitions, including 3 consecutive big wins with clean sheets recently. The heavy away defeat to Newcastle United did not affect the team’s competitive form. In terms of players, Greek striker Tasos Bakasetas has maintained excellent form this season, scoring 13 goals in all competitions, including goals in the Champions League. Youngster Mihailo Ivanović has mostly come off the bench under Mourinho.
Bayer Leverkusen has been even more unstable this season. Erik ten Hag replaced legendary coach Xabi Alonso but was sacked after just 2 rounds of the Bundesliga, with Dane Peter Bosz taking over. From Bosz’s coaching record, Leverkusen ranks fifth in the Bundesliga—a relatively decent result considering the major squad changes. However, their Champions League performance has been underwhelming, with 2 draws and 1 loss in the first 3 group-stage matches, including a heavy 2-7 defeat to Paris Saint-Germain. The team also has major defensive issues, conceding a total of 24 goals in 9 Bundesliga games and 3 Champions League games, averaging 2 goals per game—clearly unsatisfactory for a team competing in the Champions League. In terms of the squad, multiple key players of Bayer Leverkusen will be sidelined for this match due to injuries or suspensions. Defensive midfielder Robert Andrich received a red card in the last Champions League game and will be suspended for this match.
Summary:
The two teams have not faced each other in recent years—their last encounters were in the 2013 Europa League and 2014 Champions League, with Benfica achieving 1 win and 1 draw at home.
In terms of the Asian Handicap, the initial line was set at Benfica -0.25 goals, and was later adjusted to -0.5 goals. Comprehensive analysis shows that based on the current betting volume, market feedback indicates that investors have relatively firm confidence in Benfica. This may be due to Bayer Leverkusen’s 2-7 heavy defeat to Paris Saint-Germain in their last game, resulting in very little support for Leverkusen in this match.
However, in terms of strength, Benfica is not stronger than Bayer Leverkusen; on the contrary, Leverkusen holds a slight advantage. The handicap overemphasizes Benfica’s recent stable performance, thereby overshadowing Leverkusen’s certain appeal. Therefore, it is advisable to be optimistic about Bayer Leverkusen remaining unbeaten away from home in this game.
