Match: Portuguese Super Cup
Fixture: Sporting CP vs. Benfica
Local kick-off time: 20:45 on Thursday, July 31
Venue: Estádio do Algarve
Summary of both teams' strength:
Last season, Sporting CP enjoyed considerable success, with Benfica inadvertently serving as a backdrop to their triumphs – Sporting CP claimed both the Primeira Liga and Taça de Portugal titles, while Benfica finished as runners-up in both competitions. The Super Cup pits the league champion against the cup champion; as Sporting CP were double winners, the other participant is the league runners-up, Benfica.
Sporting CP’s key striker from last season, 27-year-old Swedish forward Viktor Gyökeres, joined Arsenal for a total transfer fee of €73.5 million. Beyond Gyökeres, midfielder Esugo moved to Chelsea, goalkeeper Pinto and Israel transferred to Amadora and Torino respectively. With important players leaving across the forward, midfield, and defensive lines, the team has made targeted reinforcements: they signed La Liga 2 Golden Boot winner and Almería striker Luis Suárez for €25 million, along with goalkeepers Rui and João, and midfielder Koulasvili. They are also pushing to sign Nottingham Forest attacking midfielder Jota. During the offseason, Sporting CP played 4 friendly matches, securing 2 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. After starting with two winless games, they recently won their last two friendlies against Sunderland and Villarreal, with their form gradually improving.
For Benfica, they lacked competitiveness last season, being overshadowed by Sporting CP in both the league and the cup. With Sporting CP winning titles for two consecutive years and Benfica finishing as runners-up in the same period, they are eager to turn the tide this season. Unlike Sporting CP, Benfica participated in the Club World Cup this summer and performed quite well. Though they were eliminated, they only lost to eventual champions Chelsea, and remained unbeaten in regular time. Similar to Sporting CP, Benfica also faces a talent exodus: veteran Ángel Di María returned to Argentina, forward Cabral, Tengstedt, defender Jurásek left, and the most significant departure was 22-year-old rising star defender Álvaro Carreras, who joined Real Madrid, netting Benfica €50 million in transfer fees. Their new signings include full-backs Dahl, Obrado, Dedic, and midfielder Ríos, significantly strengthening the defense. It’s evident that manager Lopetegui was dissatisfied with the team’s defensive performance last season. Benfica scored 84 goals in attack last season; if they can solidify their defense, they will be better positioned to contend for titles.
Handicap prediction:
Sporting CP +0.25 (Asian Handicap)
Home win + Draw (European Odds)
Predicted scores: 0-0, 1-0, 1-1
Predicted total goals: 0, 1, 2
Changes in betting data:
Initial European odds for this match were 2.68-3.35-2.42. Currently, there is a slight rightward trend, with Benfica’s odds dropping marginally, but overall remaining stable. In the Asian Handicap, the initial line was a level ball with higher odds on Sporting CP, and it has recently adjusted to Benfica -0.25.
Based on the above analysis, if the two teams were on par at the end of last season, after summer transfer adjustments, despite Sporting CP losing their center forward, their overall changes are minimal. Benfica, however, saw key departures across all lines, potentially weakening their strength. Coupled with differences in offseason preparation time, Sporting CP’s overall situation is at least comparable to Benfica’s, if not better. Looking at the bookmakers’ approach, they clearly used the high-profile departure of star player Gyökeres to downplay Sporting CP – his transfer garnered far more attention than Benfica losing three key players. Therefore, Sporting CP have a high chance of avoiding defeat in this match, and may even win outright.
